GSNZ Otago branch talk
Testing and Evaluation of Earthquake Rupture Simulations of New Zealand with Govinda Niroula
An effort has been made to test and evaluate the output of a synthetic catalogue of earthquake ruptures for New Zealand. The earthquake catalogue has been generated using the Rate-State earthquake simulator RSQSim. This simulator uses a physics-based model of rupture nucleation and propagation to forecast long term earthquake catalogues, for example, hundreds of thousands of years.
There are two versions of the catalogue: (1) using fault sources from 2010 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and (2) using the Community Fault Model (CFM). Sub-catalogues of 180-year and 50-year are withdrawn from these long term simulated catalogues and then are compared with historical earthquake records in New Zealand by way of magnitude-frequency distribution.
Finally, the catalogue from RSQSim has been used to prepare a probabilistic seismic hazard map for the Alpine Fault and a comparison is made with the 2010 NSHM.
Zoom link: https://bit.ly/otagogeology
Contact: jack.williams@otago.ac.nz